How many could have been saved? Effects of social distancing on COVID-19

Abstract What is the effect of social distancing policies on spread new coronavirus? Social rose to prominence as most capable containing contagion and saving lives. Our purpose in this paper identify causal number confirmed cases COVID-19 velocity. We align our main argument with existing scientific consensus: negatively affect cases. To test hypothesis, we construct a dataset daily information 78 affected countries world. compute several relevant measures from publicly available deaths estimate effects for short-term cumulative policies. use time-series cross-sectional matching approach match countries’ observable histories. Causal (ATTs ATEs) can be extracted via dif-in-dif estimator. Results show that reduce aggregated by 4,832 average (or 17.5/100 thousand), but only when strict are adopted. This seems manifest third week onwards.